Posted by
Steven Philip Jones on Friday, November 17, 2006 11:35:52 AM
Before I begin, I’d like to express my condolences on the passing of Milton Friedman, Noble Prize winner and one of the most influential economists of the 20th Century.
This morning, Republicans in the House of Representatives elected John Boehner of Ohio as the new House Minority Leader and Roy Blunt of Missouri to be Minority Whip.
What does this mean for conservatives and right-of-center moderates hoping the Republicans in the House might have learned their lesson after the 11-7 elections?
Boehner’s opponent, Mike Pence from Indiana, and Blunt’s oppoent, John Shadegg of Arizona, are both conservatives, and victories by Pence and Shadegg would have been a step in the right direction towards getting the Republican Party back on track to reclaim the House in 2008. However, Boehner and Blunt won by wide margins, a clear indication that Republican congressmen fail to see their loss of power as an indication to change their ways. This is not surprising, but it is disappointing.
Republican senators, meanwhile, demonstrated a little more backbone by electing Trent Lott of Mississippi to be their Minority Whip over Mitch McConnell of Kentucky. Lott comes with a lot of baggage, but the Senators who voted for him are showing that they are willing to take a little heat to acquire what Lott brings to the table. Lott is not someone I would want as Majority Leader if the Republicans do take back the Senate in 2008, but he is the right man for this job.
McConnell is a fine politician, but Lott is the better dealmaker, and with the Senate split 49-51, the Republicans need someone who knows when to hold ‘em and knows when to fold ‘em. Lott can do that. Lott also a chip on his shoulder, if his interview yesterday on Sean Hannity’s radio program is any indication. I may be eating crow in the near future, but I believe this is not the same Trent Lott who used to be Senate Majority Leader.
This Trent Lott got to experience first-hand what it is like to be run through the Democrat/Drive-By Media’s character shredder. He also had his home in Pascagoula, Mississippi, which had been in his family for 154 years, wiped out by Hurricane Katrina. This guy has taken his political enemies’ and nature’s best shot and he is still standing, and I respect that. More importantly, no one survives such trails without being affected, and the fact that Lott is still standing indicates to me that he is a stronger man than he was when he was Majority Leader. With his political experience, a narrow Democratic majority, and an Independent senator caucusing with the Dems, watching Lott these next two years should be in the words of White House Press Secretary Tony Snow, "Wicked good fun."
Meanwhile, as you have probably already heard, soon-to-be Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi did something her loyal opposition didn’t have the courage to do: give Republican voters hope for 2008. As you probably already know, Representative Pelosi broke House tradition and supported John Murtha of Pennsylvania as House Majority Leader. It was Rep. Pelosi’s first public display of power as the new Speaker, and lo and behold a large number of Democrats snubbed her. Rep Pelosi maintained her composure during a press conference after the vote, promising that despite this vote she will end the Iraq War. Rumor has it you could hear the botax cracking as it struggled to maintain the scariest smile since The Joker’s during this unbecoming rant.
The good news is that it appears there are Democrats who are willing to buck their leadership if they believe it is for the good of their party, especially with the more centrist liberal Steny Hoyer of Maryland as Majority Leader than if Murtha had won the post. These are people that President Bush might be able to work with, much like President Reagan was able to do with blue-dog Dems back in the 1980s. Whether this is really the case, and, if so, whether President Bush or Minority Leader Boehner take advantage of this opportunity is still a question that only time can answer.
I would pass along a little advice to Republicans in both the House and Senate. Ditto to bloggers and talk-show callers who have bee complaining that the Republicans have lost majority status in the Beltway for all time. My advice comes in the form of a football analogy, in honor of NFL fan Condoleezza Rice, our Secretary of State and a shining star of the Bush 43 administration.
On January 4, 1997, a two-year-old football franchise called the Jacksonville Jaguars defeated the heavily favorite Denver Broncos 30-27 in a divisional playoff game played at Denver’s Mile High Stadium. And don’t let that score fool you. The game wasn’t that close. After the game, one Bronco – feeling much the same way as many Republicans and conservatives did on the night of 11-7 – was quoted as saying that it would take Denver seven years to recover from such an embarrassing defeat.
History tells a different story.
With a solid foundation to work from, the Broncos learned from their shattering victory and shored up their primary weakness – their defense – with wise free agent selections during the off season, most notably picking up defensive end Neil Smith from division rival Kansas City.
The result? On December 27, 2007, Denver won a playoff rematch against Jacksonville 41-17.
Prior to the rematch, I remember announce Dan Dierdorf saying that Denver really wanted to play Jacksonville again, and then warned, "Be careful what you wish for. You just might get it." Denver got it and ran with it, going on from that victory to win two Super Bowls, a major accomplishment for a team that had lost its first four Super Bowl appearances, the last two by humiliating margins.
And what is the moral of this story?
If Republicans heed the warning of 11-7 and shore up their weaknesses – in other words, forget about spending like drunken sailors and actually grow a spine to oppose the Dems or even the President when it is for the good of the country – they can turn a devastating defeat like 11-7 into a much more devastating victory. But they have to be prepared to learn from their mistakes AND be willing to do the hard work to fix those mistakes. And, no, this victory will not happen overnight, but it can come quicker than you might imagine when the sting of defeat is still fresh and painful.
Early results are not promising that the Republicans in the House are prepared to do this, but those in the Senate might be. Conservative and Republican voters can play their part as they have in the past by holding their representatives’ feet to the fire, but in the end it will be up to the members of the new Republican minority in the Congress to decide if the new two years will be wicked good fun or if election night 2008 will just be wicked for Republicans.